外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量影响的预报预警技术初步研究

The Preliminary Study of Forecast and Early Warning Technology about the Effects of Outside Dust Transport on Air Quality in Beijing

利用多方位监测数据和气象资料,分析了2010—2011年春季外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量指数的影响,提出外来沙尘对北京市空气质量级别影响的预报判据。此外,基于NAQPMS模型的沙尘模块,开展数值预报研究,并对北京市2010年3月一次沙尘天气污染过程进行数值模拟试验,结果表明,模拟的PM10浓度值与实测值有较好的一致性。通过判别预报和数值模拟两种预报技术的开展,可以预报沙尘输送影响的空气质量级别、沙尘分布和演变规律,为进一步开展空气质量预报预警和防控沙尘工作打下了很好的科学基础。

This paper analyzed the effect of outside dust transport on air quality in spring over the Beijing Area of 2010--2011 using the air quality online monitoring and meteorological data, and made a predicted criterion about the effects of outside dust on air quality of Beijing. This paper also simulated one typical dust weather case in March, 2010 based on the dust process of NAQPMS. The result shows that the simulated concentration of PM10 is well consistent with those of the observed values. The air pollution level, dis- tribution, and evolution of dust weather could be forecasted through two new kinds of prediction technology which are Discriminate fore- cast and numerical simulation. It also laid a scientific foundation of the further air quality forecast and early warning of outside dust.