基于模糊数学的石家庄雷电灾害风险区划研究

Study of Lightning Disaster Risk Zonation Based on Fuzzy Mathematics in Shijiazhuang Area

在分析雷电灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性,确定雷击大地密度、最大地闪强度、地方经济指标及地方人口密度为风险影响因素的基础上,以模糊数学理论为基础,确定了雷电灾害风险区划方法,并将该方法应用于石家庄地区雷电灾害风险区划研究。结果表明,高邑、晋州、深泽、无极、新乐、赵县、藁城较其他县域雷电灾害风险高,应提高区域综合雷电防御能力及雷电灾害应急能力。

Based on the analysis of lightning disaster causing factor risk,region harzard formative environment sensitivity,disaster-bearing vulnerability,and the determination of the lightning density,maximum flash intensity,local economic indicators and the local population density being the risk influence factor,used the theory of fuzzy mathematics,determined the method of lightning disaster risk zonation,and the methods used in the research of lightning disaster risk zoning in Shijiazhuang area.The results indicated that Gaoyi,Jinzhou,Shenze,Wuji,Xinle,Zhaoxian and Gaocheng had high lightning risk than other counties,and should improve the regional integrated lightning defense capability and lightning emergency response capacity.