中国货币需求函数的计量分析:层次递归系统与动态调整方法

Econometric Analyses of China's Money Demand Function:Stratum Recurring System and Dynamic Adjustment Approach

1994年以来中国货币流通速度脱离了附加时间趋势的逻辑曲线路径而不再均匀减速下降 ,其异常移动以及相应预测错误阻碍了 1 998年与 1 999年中国货币政策的扩张性操作。本文设计了从M2 到M1 的中国货币需求层次递归系统 ,并且在 1 994年第 1季度至2 0 0 0年第 1季度间加以估计而建立中国M1 和M2 季度货币需求函数 ,进而考察了M1 货币需求函数的动态调整含义。本文在计量检验 1 994年以来中国货币需求的稳定性与可预测性的同时 ,给出了逐步模拟M1 与M2 货币需求的实际算法。

The time path of china′s velocity of money has been deviated from the rend-appending logistic cure since 1994,which has hindered the accurate forecasts of demand for money and ,therefore,restricted the expansionary monetary police operation during the deflation.This paper designs a M 2-to-M 1 stratum recurring system for china′s money demand andit has estimated maney demand between the 1 st quarter of 1994 and 1 st quarter of 2000 to establish M 2 and M 1 demand functions.On the basis of the general mechanism of money stock equlilbrium,the dynamic adjustment implication of the M 1 demand function is investigated.While testing the stability and predictability of China′s money demand since 1994,the paper introduces the practical algorithm of the progressively simulating of China's money demand.