摘要
IT工程时间风险是IT工程中的最主要的风险之一,现有的IT工程时间风险的度量方法大多是直接基于专家打分的度量结果,导致结果的精度不够,给实际应用带来了不便.为了改善该问题,文中提出两个不同的分析路径来解决估计结果的离散问题,一种是特定分布假设条件下IT工程时间风险度量方法,主要步骤是首先设定每一步IT时间服从的分布,然后在理论上推导出特定概率保证下IT工程时间风险的计算公式,最后利用专家打分值计算得到IT工程时间风险的度量值;另一种是利用蒙特卡洛模拟度量IT工程时间风险方法,在设定好分布形态后计算相应的IT工程时间风险度量值.最后文中利用上述两种方法度量了一个简单小型项目在不同概率情况下的时间风险值,结果表明利用蒙特卡洛模拟度量IT工程时间风险方法在满足度量精度的条件下,具有更广的适用面.
Risk of the IT Project＇s Time is one of the most important risks in IT projects. Most of the existing IT engineering time risk metrics is directly based on Experts Grading Method metric results, so the accuracy of the results is not enough to bring the practical application of the inconveniencing. In order to solve this problem, two different analytical paths are proposed in this paper. The first risk measurement method is to measure the risk in the specific distribution assumptions on IT Project＇s time; the second one is using the Monte Carlo simulation to measure IT project time risk. And finally, the risk of a simple small-scale IT projects Time is measured using the two methods. The result shows that the measure IT project time risk method using Monte Carlo simulation can meet the precision, and it is applicable to a wider area.
出处
《计算机系统应用》
2013年第6期189-195,共7页
Computer Systems & Applications
基金
内蒙古自然科学基金(2010MS1011)
关键词
IT工程时间风险
正态分布
蒙特卡洛模拟
risk of the IT Project＇s Time
normal distribution
Monte Carlo simulation
