中国特大城市人口多元化进程分析——以北京和上海市为例

An Empirical Study on the Process of Population Diversity in China's Metropolis:Beijing Case and Shanghai Cases

文章通过构造人口多样性指数,利用"五普"和"六普"数据,定量分析了北京、上海这样的特大城市中人口多元化的进程及其演变特征。研究结果显示,2000年以来,随着人口发展和人口流动的加剧,特大城市的人口构成逐渐改变了以本地人口为主的单一模式,人口多样性日益增强,而且近郊区是人口多样性最强和人口多元化发展最快的区域。从人口多元化发展的空间演变轨迹来看,由近郊区带动向周边扩散发展的空间特征明显。由于人口多元化对城市发展和社会稳定具有双重影响,因此,随着城市社会结构的日趋复杂,政府政策在积极促进人口多元化有机发展的同时,必须密切关注其发展动向,以便应对各种可能出现的社会问题。

By setting up an index of Population Diversity and using the sixth and the fifth national census data,this paper conducts an empirical study on the diversity process of metropolis population focusing on the cases of Beijing and Shanghai.It finds that many metropolis are changing their mono-population structures with local residents' majority.It argues that China metropolis population is experiencing an increasing diversity with increasing immigrants.The neighbor suburbs,which have experienced rapidly development of population diverse,are the most diverse areas,and have influenced the population structure of surrounding areas.The diverse population may benefit the metropolis development by innovation on the one hand and can destroy it with possible social conflicts on the other.Therefore,the city authorities and policy-makers should give more attention to the population diverse process and its changes,especially population mosaic and social segregation near suburban areas.Taking it in full consideration and preparing to avoid its harmful effects on urban and social development may be the best for policy design.