扩招对大学毕业生工资及教育收益率的影响研究

Higher Education Expansion and Returns to College Education

文章利用中国健康与营养调查数据分析了中国大学毕业生工资、教育收益率及长期变化趋势,并重点考察了扩招的影响。研究发现:(1)虽然扩招对大学毕业生的就业具有一定负面影响,但大学毕业生的失业率仍然保持在较低水平;(2)与欧美国家的年龄一工资呈现倒"U"形关系不同,中国大学毕业生的年龄一工资呈正相关关系,即年龄越大工资越高;(3)由于扩招适应了经济形势和劳动力市场的变化,扩招对大学毕业生工资和教育收益率的影响有限。在扩招背景下,"上大学"仍然是一个不错的选择,不能断言当前高校规模过大。此外,扩招和大学教育收益率的提高有助于实现经济持续增长和转型发展。

By using CHNS data,this research analyzes the salary level and returns of college graduates,and describes the change trend of them.Then it expatiates on the effect of enrollment extension of universities.The result is that the enrollment extension of universities has great effect on the unemployment rate.However,different from the inverted U relation of age and salary in European and American countries,there is a positive correlation between age of graduates and their salary in China,which means the older they grow,the more they earn.Meanwhile,the effects on salary level and returns to education are limited so that it is still a good choice to attend university.There is no reason to make an assertion that the enrollment scale of higher education is currently outsized.