模糊综合评价法在森林生态安全预警中的应用

Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in Forest Ecological Security Warning

森林生态安全研究是城市生态学和可持续发展研究的重要方面。运用模糊综合评价法评价和预测了2011—2015年北京市森林生态安全状况,主要内容包括3个部分:1)通过压力—状态—响应的概念模型,构建森林生态安全预警指标体系。采用模糊综合评价方法,借助相对隶属度的概念和客观赋权的主成分分析,评价2001—2010年的北京市森林生态安全状态。结果表明北京市森林生态安全状态呈逐年转好趋势;2)利用指数平滑法预测2011—2015年的预警级别。结果表明预测时段内北京市森林生态安全状态继续转好,并将于2015年首次达到无警状态。3)根据各指标的权重排序,分析了压力层、状态层和响应层3个层次北京市森林生态安全的影响因子。

Evaluation of forest ecological security is one of the important aspects in the urban ecology and sustainability. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to assess and forecast the eco-security of forests between 2011 and 2015 in Beijing. Based on the ＂pressure-state-response＂ conceptual model, a forest ecological security warning indicator system was built. The eco-security status of forests from 2001 to 2010 in Beijing was evaluated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with the concept of relative membership degree and the objective-weighting principal components analysis. The eco-seeurity status was getting better gradually during this period. The exponential smoothing method was used to forecast the alarm level from 2011 to 2015. The results showed that the eco-security status of Beijing forests would continue to get better, and there would be the ＂no warning＂ state in 2015 for the first time. According to the order of weighting factors of different warning indicators, the main factors affecting the forest security were analyzed for pressure, status and response categories, respectively.