中国经济能实现可持续发展吗?——兼论“中等收入陷阱”

Can the Chinese Economy Achieve Sustainable Development? ——with Reference to the "Middle-Income Trap"

经过几十年的发展,中国经济快速增长,并已经成为一个中等收入国家,如何使增长可持续,或者说不陷入"中等收入陷阱"就成为重要的议题。拉美作为较早开始工业化的地区,在一段时期内,经济快速增长,人民收入水平得到了很大的提高,但是自20世纪80年代债务危机爆发拉美经历了"失去的十年"以来,经济增长减速,大部分国家没能进入高收入行列。而自20世纪50年代以来开始工业化进程的东亚地区,不仅取得了快速的经济增长,也成功进入到高收入行列。比较东亚和拉美的经验与教训,对中国的经济如何实现可持续发展具有一定的借鉴意义。

After decades of development, China has been growing fast economically; it has be- come a middle-income nation. How to make this growth sustainable,or rather,how can the mid- dle-income trap be avoided？ This is a question plaguing most of us. Latin America started indus- trializing itself early compared with other parts of the world. For quite a long time, its economy grew rapidly,bringing up ordinary people＇s incomes. However, since the beginning of the ＂Lost Decade＂ triggered by the region＇s debt crisis in the 1980s, the Latin American economy has slowed down a lot,barring most countries of the region from joining the high-income ranks. In contrast, the East Asian region, which started its process of industrialization in the 1950s,has achieved both a rapid rise to prosperity and income growth. Hence, it would be in China＇s own interest to study the merits and demerits of East Asian and Latin American experiences.