基于MYCIN不确定因子和前景理论的随机直觉模糊决策方法

Intuitionistic fuzzy stochastic multi-criteria decision-making methods based on MYCIN certainty factor and prospect theory

针对指标权重未知,方案的指标值为直觉模糊数的随机直觉模糊决策问题,提出了一种基于MYCIN不确定因子和前景理论的随机决策方法.根据直觉模糊数的记分函数和前景理论得到各指标下不同方案的MYCIN不确定因子,运用灰色关联方法确定各指标的信度;推导出多证据下不确定因子的融合方法,并证明了其满足交换律和结合律,通过该融合方法确定最优方案.最后,算例分析说明了该方法的合理性和可行性.

For the stochastic multi-criteria decision-making problem, in which the information on criteria＇s weights is incomplete and the indices value of alternatives are in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, an intuitionistic random decision-making approach based on MYCIN certainty factor and prospect theory is proposed. According to the score function of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and prospect theory, the MYCIN certainty factors of different alternatives in different indices are obtained. And the trust degrees of different indices are determined by using the grey incidence analysis. Then, the certainty factor fusion method in different indices is deduced to get the optimal alternative. It is proved that the fusion method satisfies the commutative law and the associative law. Finally, an example shows the feasibility and validity And the best alternative is got by using the method of this method.