浙江省2012年传染病自动预警系统运行情况分析

The application of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System in Zhejiang province, 2012

目的分析评价中国传染病自动预警系统（CIDARS）在浙江省的预警应用效果。方法对浙江省2012年传染病自动预警监测数据进行描述性分析，并与同期报告病例数及相关突发公共卫生事件进行比较。结果2012年浙江省预警系统共发出28种传染病14292条预警信号，响应率为100％，平均响应时间为0．81h。其中123条信号（O．86％）经初步核实判断为疑似事件，经过现场调查确认33起暴发，预警阳性率为0．23％。预警病种的报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关变化（r=0．97，P〈0．01）；预警县（区）数与信号数呈正相关（r=0．80，P〈0．01）。结论CIDARS运行良好，能够辅助基层疾病预防控制机构早期发现可能的传染病暴发，但预警信号阳性率较低，不同地区、不同病种的预警效果存在差别。

Objective To analyze and evaluate the application of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System （CIDARS） in Zhejiang province. Methods Data through the monitoring program in 2012 was analyzed descriptively and compared with the incidence data in the same period as well information related to public health emergency events. Results A total of 14 292 signals were generated on 28 kinds of infectious diseases in the system, in Zhejiang province. 100% of the signals had been responded and the median time to response was 0.8 l hours. 123 signals （0.86%） were preliminarily verified as suspected outbreaks and 33 outbreaks were finally confirmed by further field investigation, with a positive ratio of 0.23%. Information related to regional distribution showed significant differences which reflecting a positive correlation between the numbers of diseases and the time of early-warning （r=0. 97, P〈0.01 ）. Distribution of information related to different types of diseases was also significantly different, showing a positive correlation between the prevalent strength of the disease and the amount of information in a specific area （r= 0.80, P〈0.01 ）. Conclusion CIDARS had a good performance which could be used to assist the local public health institutions on early detection of possible outbreaks at the early stage. However, the effectiveness was different for different regions and diseases.