陕西省妇女生育模式变化和未来人口预测研究

Fertility rate and the prediction of future population size in Shaanxi province

目的利用第六次人口普查数据，分析陕西省妇女生育模式并预测未来人口数。方法采用生育率曲线分析生育模式，差别分解法寻找生育率下降的原因，简略寿命表法及实际生育率法预测未来人口。结果陕西省2010年总和生育率为1．05，一般生育率下降中年龄别生育率下降的贡献为101．27％，预测2015年人口数为38122474，2020年为38432931，2025年为38121904。结论陕西省已进入超低生育水平社会，并且人口将在2020年出现负增长。

Objective To analyze the fertility rate and to estimate the future population size of Shaanxi province, based on data from the sixth national population census. Methods Fertility rate curve was used to analyze the fertility model and the abbreviated life table. The actual fertility rate was used as the main way to predict the future population size. General fertility rate was analyzed by factor analysis approach. Results The total fertility rate of Shaanxi province was 1.05 in 2010 while age-specific fertility rate contributed 101.27% to the general fertility rate. The expected population sizes would be 38 122 474 in 2015, 38 432 931 in 2020 and 38 121 904 in 2025 respectively. Conclusion Birthrate would become lower and the population size appearing a negative increase in the year 2020, in Shaanxi province.