人民币汇率对我国出口影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the RMB Exchange Rate Influence on Export

理论上看,名义汇率升值可以降低一国出口,然而,在其他影响出口因素的作用下,名义汇率升值对出口的影响可能有所弱化。本文解释了汇率升值对出口负面效应弱化的原因,并在此基础上,采用多项式滞后模型实证检验了人民币汇率变化对我国出口的影响,得出了人民币汇率升值(实际有效汇率和名义有效汇率)对我国出口总额的影响短期并不显著,但其长期累计效应不可忽视的主要结论。

Theoretically,the appreciation of nominal exchange rate can reduce a country' s exports,but the influence of nominal exchange rate appreciation on exports may weakened by other factors.This paper explains the causes that weakens the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports,on this basis,it empirically tests the impact of the RMB exchange rate changes on China's exports by polynomial lag model.The main conclusion is that the effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation on the total export of China is not significant in short-term,however,in long-term its accumulated effect can not be ignored.