摘要
跨境贸易人民币结算试点至今,在岸市场对香港地区离岸市场人民币业务的效应有待实证检验。本文基于香港人民币业务数据,就跨境贸易人民币结算试行后,跨境贸易、在岸市场利率、汇率水平以及内地证券市场对香港离岸市场人民币业务的影响进行实证分析。从人民币离岸市场的视角考察在岸市场条件对香港人民币业务的影响力和一些关键效应。研究表明:在对香港人民币业务起显著影响的因素中,外汇储备、人民币兑美元汇率、进出口对离岸人民币业务影响最强;在岸市场利率属于中等影响因素;在岸证券市场对离岸人民币业务影响属于弱影响因素。
Since cross-border trade RMB settlement pilot so far,the effects of onshore market on offshore RMB business in Hong Kong need to be empirically tested.Based on the Hong Kong offshore RMB business data,this paper investigates the impact and key effects of cross-border trade,onshore interest rate,exchange rate and mainland stock market on offshore market RMB business in Hong Kong.The results show that among the factors with significant impact on offshore RMB business in Hong Kong,foreign exchange reserves,exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S.dollar,the cumulative amount of import and export are the strongest impact factors to offshore RMB market.Onshore current interest rate and the one-year benchmark interest rate are moderate impact factors.Monthly export volume,onshore securities market are weaker impact factors.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第6期45-53,88,共9页
World Economy Studies
