上海制造业比较优势演化与转型升级的路径研究

The Comparative Advantage Evolution and the Upgrading Path of Shanghai Manufacturing Industry

金融危机后国际经济形势复杂多变,新一轮技术进步带动全球生产方式和分工格局加速调整。未来一段时间,制造业争夺战将成为国与国之间在劳动力素质和成本、技术创新能力、资本充裕程度、经济发展水平以及市场完善程度等方面的竞争。本文在分析归纳比较优势演化与产业升级相关理论的基础上,对上海制造业在国际分工中相对地位的变化进行分析,除分析制造业总体情况外,选择劳动力密集、资本密集以及技术密集型产业作行业分析,获得不同产业比较优势演化的特点。根据相关要素禀赋、技术水平和经济发展水平确定指标体系,将指标体系与RCA指数进行回归分析,测算上海制造业参与国际分工中各要素贡献度程度,然后根据上海比较优势的变化来设计制造业升级的路径选择。

After the financial crisis, the international economic situation is complex and changeful. A new round of technology progress drives the global production and the pattern of division of labor to adjust accelerated. In the near future, the manufacturing industry competition will become the competition of the labor force quality and cost, technical innovation ability, capital adequacy, economical levels and market environment. Based on the relevant theory, this paper tries to study the changes of the relative position of Shanghai＇s manufacturing industry in the international market, and the same time, study some labor intensive, capital intensive and technology intensive industries to get different evolution characteristics. Based on this, this paper tries to make a multiple regression between the of manufacturing industry and factors of capital, labor, technology and the development levels, and find out which factor contribute to most, Not only make a clear explanation to the changes of , but also give some advice that how to improve the performance of the comparative advantage and how to upgrade the position of Shanghai＇s manufacturing industry in the world market.