政府主导模式下我国行业潮涌现象作用机制的实证研究

The Empirical Research on“Wave Phenomena”and its Formation in Chinese Industries: Based on the Government-dominant Pattern

潮涌现象是当前经济学界研究的热门领域,也被认为是引发产能过剩的重要原因之一。本文首先对该理论现有研究成果的相关文献进行梳理,结合我国当前经济建设中政府投资占较大比例的特殊事实,文章对原理论中关于投资主体的假设进行了重新界定;在此基础之上,运用不完全信息静态博弈模型对政府主导和市场主导两种模式下企业投资决策的预期均衡结果进行对比分析,并通过对我国2010年至2012年宏观经济数据的实证研究得出结论,表明我国行业投资在政府的过度干预下,潮涌现象的表现形式更为激烈,最终形成的产能过剩后果要比市场主导模式下更严重。据此,文章最后提出相应的政策建议。本研究从新的视角出发,丰富和补充了潮涌现象研究领域的成果,而且为解决行业内投资的过度竞争和重复建设问题提供了新的思路。

At present, the ＂Wave Phenomena＂ has become one of the hottest field of economic research, which is also believed to be the important reason for excessive capcity. Based on the current study of ＂Wave Phenomena＂ and the fact that the government investment account for a big part of the overall investment, this paper redefines the assumed condition about the investment subject. Then it makes comparison of the enterprises investment decisions between the government - dominnant and market - dominant pattern with static gaming model under incomplete information. Afterwards, with some revlated macroeconomic data, we adopt an empirical research model to approve that the government＇ s excessive intervention play an important role in ＂Wave Phenomena＂ and excessive capcity. Thus, we put forward three policy suggestions so as to curb the crucial facors in the process of ＂Wave Phenomena＂. From a new perspective, this article alms to enrich the existing academic achievements and provides some new resolutions on the problem of deplicated construction.