中国经济的区域影响力超过日本了吗——基于不等方差检验的一种衡量方法

Does the regional impact of China really dominate that of Japan: A measuring approach based on the unequal variance test

本文以因子模型为依据,使用中国等7国(或地区)的股指序列数据,通过Lee etal.(2012)的"不等方差检验"辨别中、美、日三国作为亚洲的区域性因子与亚洲四小龙(台湾、香港、新加坡、韩国)的密切程度,从而判断三国经济在亚洲的区域影响力。并联合协整检验和不等方差检验的计量结果构建了一个直观的评分体系衡量经济影响力。实证发现:中、美、日在亚洲地区的经济影响力存在此消彼长的态势;中国对亚洲其他经济体的影响力在近年来缓慢提高,但与经济总量的增长不匹配,且并没有超过日本和美国。

Based on the factor model, this paper, using the stock indices, chooses China, the US and Japan as the local factors of Asia to examine their impacts on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea by employing the ＂unequal variance test＂ of Lee et al. （2012）, and constructs a score system to assess the impact of an economy based on the results of the co - integration test and the unequal variance test. The empirical results indicate that the impacts of China, the United States and Japan are trading off. The economic influence of China in Asia is slowly increasing in recent years, which, however, doesn＇ t match up to the rate of her GDP and is dominated by Japan and the US.