2013年1—4月国内外食糖市场分析与展望

Analysis of Domestic and International Sugar Markets in Jan-Apr 2013 and Their Prospects

由于种植面积增加,预计2012/13榨季国内产糖1300万～1330万t,比2011/12榨季同期增加150万t以上。2013年第1季度国内糖价持续下跌,为保障糖厂和糖农的利益,国家已实行了收储底价为6100元/t的150万t的临时收储,并加大对走私糖的打击力度,由于国际食糖市场供给过剩,本次收储对糖价的支撑作用有限,现货和期货价格均跌至5500元/t以下。国际上,2012/13榨季除印度外其他食糖主产国几乎全部增产,全球食糖将连续第3个榨季供给过剩,国际糖价已处于极低水平,显著的国内外价差促使中国食糖进口量大幅增长。在国内供给过剩、国内外糖价倒挂和国内经济增速放缓的背景下,未来收储对国内糖价的支撑作用将较为有限。

Because of the increased sugar acreage, domestic sugar production is expected to be 13 million ~ 13.3 million tons in 2012/13 crushing season, up 1.5 million tons compared with the same period of 2011/12 crushing season. In the first quarter of 2013, domestic sugar price continued falling, so government has purchased 1.5 million tons sugar to storage with base price at 6 100 RMB per ton temporarily and enhanced sanction strength on smuggling to protect the interests of sugar industry and farmers, but its supporting role was limited for oversupply of international sugar market, spot and futures prices have dropped to below 5 500 RMB per ton. In the international market, almost all other main sugar producing countries＇ production increased in 2012/13 crushing season demand for the third consecutive crushing season, except India, the global sugar supply would excess the international price has been in very low level, and the gap between demestic and international sugar prices made China＇s sugar imports increased significantly. In the future, under the background of domestic surplus supply, the gap between demestic and international sugar prices staying high, and domestic economic slowing down, the supporting role of reserve to domestic sugar price will be limited.