俄罗斯远东开发的历史与现实

History and Reality of Russian Far East Development

自沙俄时代起,出于经济利益与地缘政治利益的考虑,俄国就开始向远东地区扩张。苏联时期,因重工业和军事工业发展的需要,该国对远东地区的开发曾达到一定高度。2008年后,俄罗斯政府基于地区经济平衡和国家安全考虑,通过制定一系列战略和规划,力图重新掀起远东地区开发浪潮。从整体而言,俄罗斯远东开发前景不容乐观。主要原因在于:开发意愿大多来自于外来压力,内在动力不足,政府政策导向不明晰,患得患失,经济合理性将遭受拷问;资金和劳动力瓶颈又难以克服。建议中国企业参与俄罗斯远东开发应理性,宜采取态度上积极,行动上不冒进、注重实效的做法。

@@@@Since the time of the Czarist Russia, Russia started to expand out toward the Far East in terms of economic and geo-political interests. In the time of the Soviet Union, Russia developed the Far East region to a certain degree because of the needs of development of heavy industry and military industry. After 2008, the Russian government tried hard to set off an upsurge of development once again in the Far East through a series of strategies and programs in view of regional economic balance and national security. Taking the situation as a whole, the Russian Far East development is not optimistic. The main reasons are:external motive force is not enough, economic rationality is to be questioned, funds and labor forces are a bottleneck and policy leading direction is not clear because the Russian policy-makers are swayed by considerations of gain and loss. My suggestion is that Chinese enterprises should be rational and pragmatic in joining in the Far East development, active in attitude, but not rash in action.