政策影响下土地利用空间布局变化模拟分析

Simulation Analysis of the Influence of Policy in Land Use Spatial Layout

目前,对土地利用在空间布局方面的研究已经成为新兴热点,而对于政策影响下的土地利用空间布局变化模拟研究与分析的成果尚只存少数。因此,本文在对研究区进行土地利用现状于结构和空间布局两方面的分析的基础上,根据研究区当前面临的主要土地利用变化相关政策进行需求变化研究,通过合理选择土地利用分类,运用逻辑回归分析及ROC曲线等方法进行反复的驱动因子筛选,最终选出最适用于研究区特点的因子,并通过CLUE-S模型对土地利用变化政策在空间布局上的影响做出合理模拟。结果显示,采用确切符合研究区特点的参数设置,灵活多变地选用驱动因子可以有效地帮助实现运用CLUE-S模型同时模拟出"建设用地上山"、"建设用地为耕地腾挪土地"、"建设用地沿河沿路发展"、"重点产业用地扩张"等多项土地利用政策在空间上的布局,其结果对土地利用变化研究、土地利用规划工作等具有一定意义。

Currently, the land use in the study of the spatial layout has become a new hot spot, while the change in policy under the influence of land use spatial layout simulation results of research and analysis still only keep a few. Therefore, on the basis of the study area the current land use structure and spatial layout analysis, according to the studies that the study area are facing major land-use change related policy changes in demand, through reasonable land use classification, the use of logic methods such as regression analysis and ROC curve driving factors for repeated screening, the final selection of the most suitable for the characteristics of the study area factor, and through the CLUE-S model of land use change policy to make a reasonable simulation of the impact on the spatial layout. The results showed that, using exactly in line with the parameter setting of the study area features, flexible selection of driving factors can effectively help use CLUE-S model to simulate the ＂construction land uphill＂, ＂construction land is arable land maneuvers＂, ＂building the land along the fiver along the road to development＂,＂key industrial land expansion, a number of land-use policies in the space on the layout, the result of land use changes, land-use planning work has a certain significance.