资本账户开放与相关金融改革对经济增长的协同效应研究

Research on the Synergies of Capital Account Convertibility and Related Financial Reforms to Economic Growth

本文在回顾相关理论及各国实践经验的基础上,对资本账户开放、汇率制度改革、利率市场化之间的相互关系进行了探讨,并分别检验了资本账户开放与汇率弹性机制改革及利率市场化改革在促进经济增长方面的协同效应。实证结果表明:资本账户开放有助于经济增长;资本账户开放与汇率弹性机制改革之间存在协同效应;从长期来看,资本账户开放与弹性汇率形成机制改革对于经济增长具有联合推动作用;而资本账户开放所带来的经济增长效应与利率市场化水平没有显著的相关性,关于利率市场化程度提高应先于资本账户开放的金融改革次序论观点在文中并没有得到支持。

Based on the theory review and practical experience in selected countries, this paper analyzes the relationships of the capital account liberalization, exchange rate flexibility, and interest rate marketization and pays attention to the synergies between economic growth and them. The empirical analysis shows that the capital account liberalization contributes to the economic growth; a synergy has been between the capital account liberalization and the exchange rate flexibility reforms. In the long run, capital account liberalization and exchange rate flexibility reforms work together on promoting economic growth. However, there is no significant correlation between the economic growth effects brought from the capital account liberalization and the levels of interest rate marketization. The financial reform order theory, which states that interest rate marketization should precede the capital account convertibility reform, is not supported by this paper.