经常项目跨期模型能解释中国的经常项目动态行为吗?

Can Inter-temporal Model of Current Account Explain the Dynamic Behavior of China’s Current Account?

利用2001—2010年的季度数据,对中国经常项目余额的实际值与基于跨期模型得出的预测值之间的拟合度进行了实证检验。检验结果显示:经常项目预测值与实际值的走势基本一致,经常项目跨期模型能够解释中国经常项目动态变化的74%。这说明跨期模型对中国经常项目的动态行为有较强的解释力。因此,运用跨期模型来分析中国的经常项目问题是合适的。但是,中国经常项目动态变化中未被解释的部分也提醒我们需要对经常项目跨期模型进行本土化的修正,才能进一步增强经常项目跨期模型的解释力和预测力。

This paper investigates the fitness degree between the actual value of China＇ s current ac- count with the predicted value based on inter-temporal model, by the quarterly data between 2001 and 2010. The results of the test indicate that the predicted value of the current account is consistent in trend with true value. The inter-temporal model can successfully explain 74 percent of the dynamic changes of China＇ s current account. It proves the effectiveness of the inter-temporal model in explain- ing the dynamic behavior of China＇ s current account. Therefore, it is appropriate to apply the in- ter-temporal model in analyzing China s current account. Whereas, the part that can not be explained yet in the dynamic change of China＇ s current account also reminds us that corrections for inter-tempo- ral model is necessary to enhance the explanatory power and predictive power of the inter-temporal model of China＇ s current account.