我国政府财政支出挤出效应研究

Research on the Crowding-out Effect of China’s Government Fiscal Expenditure

通过分析1990-2009年中国省级面板数据,本文研究政府财政支出是否具有挤出效应。研究发现:财政支出对私人投资具有明显的挤入效应,动态面板GMM模型的分析显示投资自身具有强烈的自相关性;投资具有通货膨胀效应,而且和消费具有互相抵消的效果;挤入效应在东部和西部存在,而在中部则不存在,1994年的分税制改革导致了挤入效应上升;分位数回归的结果显示挤入效应具有明显的非对称性,在较小和较高水平的私人固定资产投资水平上挤入效应比较大。

Using China＇s provincial panel data during 1990-2009, this paper intends to empirically test whether gov-ernment expenditure has crowding - out effect. We find that ： government expenditure has significant crowding - in effect for private investment, and dynamic panel GMM model reveals that private investment itself has strong autocorrelation, furthermore, investment also has inflation effect, and is competing with consumption; crowding - in effect exists in east- ern and western regions, however, it does not exist in middle regions, and the tax-separating system reform in 1994 re-suits in an increase of crowding - in effect; according to quantile regression, crowding - in effect is significantly asym-metric, and it is larger either the private fixed capital investment is in the low or high level.