中国城镇居民消费结构变动研究——基于ELES模型的实证分析

A Study on the Change of China's Urban Residents' Consumption Structure——An Empirical Analysis Based on ELES Model

本文采用面板数据,分析了1981年以来中国城镇居民的消费结构变动。首先对中国城镇居民1981～2011年消费结构的变动情况进行了描述性分析,并对教育方面的支出进行了细致分析。其次,通过运用ELES模型,对各项消费品的需求收入弹性以及价格需求弹性进行了实证分析,分析了影响城镇居民消费支出的各项因素。最后对中国城镇居民的消费结构变动情况进行了分析与讨论。从1981年到2011年间,中国城镇居民的消费结构处于持续升级的状态,当前已经处于第三层次,但食品支出仍占较大比重,且边际消费倾向较大。

In this paper, panel data is taken for the analysis of the changes in consumption structure of urban residents in China since 1981. Firstly, we make the descriptive analysis of the changes in the consumption structure of urban residents in China from 1981 to 2011, and the expenditure on education carried out for a detailed analysis. Secondly, with the use of ELES model, we make empirical analysis of the income elasticity of demand and price demand elasticity for con- sumer goods. Finally, we analyze and discuss the changes in the consumption structure of urban residents in China. From 1981 to 2011, the consumption structure of urban residents in China is continuing to upgrade, which is currently in the third level, but the food expenditure still account for a large proportion and the marginal propensity to consume is great.