我国服务贸易与经济增长关系研究

The Relationship between Service Trade and Economic Growth of China

服务贸易在对外贸易中的作用越来越重要。对1982—2011年相关数据进行协整检验和Granger因果检验,发现服务贸易进出口与我国GDP之间的关系不对称:服务贸易进出口是我国GDP增长的Granger原因,而GDP增长只是服务贸易进口的Granger原因,世界GDP总量是服务贸易出口的Granger原因,这说明我国服务贸易出口增长更多得益于全球经济增长。

As the engine of economic growth, the relationship between trade and economic growth has been a hot spot issue for years. In accordance with the theory of co-integration and Granger causes test, it＇s found that the rela- tionship between trade and economic growth is unbalanced： China＇s services export-import is the Granger causality to economic growth, but the economic growth of China is only the Granger causality to China＇s services import. The economic growth of the whole world is the Granger causality to China＇s services export. That means, China＇s services export benefits from global economy growth.