旅游经济与经济增长关系研究——以南京市为例

Study of the Relationship between the Tourism and the Economy: Taking Nanjing as an Example

以旅游经济和经济增长理论为基础,对南京市旅游收入与南京市国内生产总值、南京市旅游接待人数进行单位根检验与协整检验后,进行回归分析。结果表明,南京市旅游收入、南京市国内生产总值、南京市旅游接待人数三者之间存在协整关系。从长期看,南京市旅游收入与南京市国内生产总值、南京市旅游接待人数之间构成均衡关系,南京市国内生产总值每增长1%,南京市旅游收入将平均增长0.369%;南京市旅游接待人数每增长1%,南京市旅游收入将平均增长0.846%;从短期看,南京市国内生产总值对南京市旅游收入的增长影响不明显,南京市旅游接待人数对南京市旅游收入的增长影响明显,短期弹性为0.871。Granger因果检验结果表明南京市国内生产总值增长、南京市旅游接待人数增长是南京市旅游收入增长的Granger原因。

This thesis takes positive analysis on the relationship between tourism and economy in Nanjing, guided by the theory of tourism economics and economical growth. After unit root test and cointegration test on TI, GDP and NT, regression analysis is conducted. It shows that there is the cointegration relationship among TI, GDP and NT via cointegration test. There is a long-run equilibrium among TI, GDP and NT. When GDP increases by 1 per- cent, TI will increase by 0. 369 percent. When NT increases by 1 percent, TI will increase by 0. 846 percent. In the short term, GDP can＇t obviously exert impact on TI, but NT can, and the short-term elasticity is 0. 871. It shows that GDP and NT are the Granger causes for TI via Granger causes and consequences analysis.