舰艇沉没概率解析计算模型

Ship sinking probability analytic calculation model

对影响沉没概率计算的要素进行分析,给出沉没概率的解析计算模型;然后,对解析计算模型的2个关键问题,即水密区破损概率计算模型和沉没判据模型进行了研究。考虑到武器炸点在三维方向上分布是独立的,建立了水密区破损概率计算的解析模型。分析舰艇沉没的判据指标,并建立基于支持向量数据描述的沉没判别算法。最后,使用此解析计算模型对某船模的沉没概率进行了计算,该算例说明了此解析模型的准确性。

Factors that affect ship sinking probability calculation are analyzed and the analytic calculation model is given firstly. Watertight region damage probability calculation model and sinking judgment model which are the two pivotal models of the analytic model are researched. Concerning the weapon blast point distribution is self-governed in three-dimensional direction;the analytic watertight region damage probability calculation model is founded. And then, ship sinking judgment indexes are analyzed and the sinking judgment arithmetic is founded based on support vector data description. At last the sinking probability of a ship model is calculated using the analytic calculation model and the results verified the correctness of the analytic model.