ODE视角下的中国宏观经济预测计量分析研究

From the Perspectives of ODE to Begin the Forecasting Analysis of the Macro Economy of China

对宏观经济的预测研究尤其是中国宏观经济的预测研究不多,而采用复杂模型展开的预测研究明显不足。针对这一系列问题,从自主构建分析方法入手展开研究。自主构建分析方法主要是通过对国内外相关领域的最新研究成果进行深入研究,并结合宏观经济理论、计量经济理论与方法、常微分方程理论与方法等实现的。在此基础上,利用基础调研所获得数据依次进行相关性分析、ODE分析、计量模型构建,完成了ODE视角下的中国宏观经济预测计量研究。利用实证分析所得的ODE模型,对中国宏观经济的发展展开了预测研究,认为今后一段时期为中国宏观经济盘整的重要阶段。

The macroeconomic forecast research especially the Chinese macro economic forecast study not much, particularly the use of complex expansion model prediction research is obviously insufficient. For this series of problems, a model or method is constructed by ourselves. Independent construction analysis method is mainly based on the latest research results of in - depth research, and the combination of macros economy theory, econo- metric theory and methods, theory of ordinary differential equations and the method of realization. On this basis, u- sing survey data obtained by correlation analysis, ODE analysis, econometric model building, completed the ODE from the perspective of Chinese macro economic forecast research. Finally, the use of empirical analysis of the ODE model, on China＇ s macroeconomic development forecast study, thus determining the future period for Chinese mac- roeconomic level important stage.