煤炭消费和经济增长关系的实证分析——以山西省为例

An Empirical Analysis of Relationship Between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in Shanxi Provence

运用协整关系检验等经济计量方法,分析了山西省的煤炭消费与经济增长之间的关系。通过对1990～2010年的数据分析得出结论,长期看来,山西省的煤炭消费与经济增长之间强相关,两者之间有协整关系,且经济增长是煤炭消费的格兰杰原因,这意味着经济增长有效影响煤炭消费的增长;根据误差修正模型,指出短期内山西省的煤炭消费平均每年对上一年偏离长期均衡水平的调整幅度为55%;在实证分析结论的基础上提出了相应建议。

With cointegration and Granger causal relation test, the paper studies the relation of coal consumption and GDP growth in Shanxi province between 1990 -2010. We draw the conclusions as follows：Firstly, there is a long- term equilibrium relation between GDP and coal consumption;secondly, GDP is coal consumption Granger causal; finally, coal consumption fluctuation is 55% in short term according to error correction model. Based on the conclusions we put forward the countermeasures.