采用灰色关联度与TOPSIS法的光伏发电项目风险评价研究

Risk Assessment on Photovoltaic Power Generation Project by Grey Correlation Analysis and TOPSIS Method

光伏发电安全、可靠、无污染、资源丰富且无枯竭危险,因此逐渐成为当今世界备受关注的新兴产业。然而,光伏发电项目建设周期长、涉及面广、投入资金数量庞大,项目和项目管理者面临的各种不确定性因素和各种环境因素急剧加大,伴随项目而来的各种风险日益突出,因此对光伏发电项目进行有效的风险评价具有明确的现实意义。根据光伏发电项目的典型特征,建立起更为全面的光伏发电项目风险评价指标体系,使用灰色关联度和逼近理想解的排序方法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS),对光伏项目的风险进行评价。结果表明,该方法是一种有效的风险评价方法。它既能对备选方案进行整体评判,又能反映备选方案内部各因素变化趋势与理想方案之间的区别,对于光伏发电项目的投资具有一定的指导作用。

Due to long construction cycle, massive investment and many involved aspects of photovoltaic （PV） power generation, various uncertain factors and environmental factors, which both PV generation project and project manager have to be faced with, sharply increase and various risks going with the item appear, so it is of great significance to perform effective risk assessment on PV generation project. According to typical features of PV generation project, a more comprehensive risk assessment index system is proposed, in which the grey correlation analysis and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution （TOPSIS） method is utilized to construct a grey ideal value approximation model, to assess the risks in PV generation project. Using the proposed risk assessment index system, results of empirical research on eight PV generation projects that will be constructed in a certain province in Northwest China show that using the proposed method the overall evaluation on alternate schemes can be implemented and the differences between alternate schemes, in which the variation tendency of internal factors of alternate schemes and the ideal scheme can be reflected, therefore the proposed risk assessment method is effective.