城市化与社会经济发展协调性的时空变异研究——以安徽省为例

Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Coordination of City and Social Economic Development——in Anhui Province as an Example

构建了一套多维度定量化评判城市化与社会经济发展协调性的评价体系,并选取协调发展度作为等级判断标准,据此以安徽省地级市作为基本单位的面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明,安徽省城市化与社会经济发展协调性的时空变异存在较好的规律性,表现为:时间序列上,研究期内大部分地级市协调发展度指数大于0.5,总体呈现协调发展态势,"路径依赖"较强,"高中低"三层稳固演化,且"两极分化"逐步强化。空间变异上,中心城市凸显,呈沿江和内陆"双核双带"模式发展,东西两翼、南北两端差异显著,空间自相关性、趋同性和集中性较高。演变趋势上,大部分地域在小幅波动变化中出现稳中有降,且从东北向西南下降速率逐步减小。

To construct a set of multidimensional quantitative evaluation of city and social economic development coordination evaluation system, and selects the coordinated development degree as the rating criteria, according to the city of Anhui Province as the basic unit of the panel data empirical research. The results show that the temporal and spatial variation of Anhui Province, city and the coordinated development of economy and society existence regularity, good performance is： time series, during the research period, most of the city coordinated development degree index greater than 0.5, the overall presentation of the coordinated development of the situafon, ＂path dependence＂ strong, ＂high＂ three layers of firm evolution, and ＂polarization＂ progressive enhancement. Spatial variability, center city is highlighted, along the Yangtze River and inland ＂dual-core dual＂ model of development, East and West, North and South difference, spatial autocorrelation, convergence and higher. The evolution trend, most of the region in the small fluctuations stability changes, and from northeast to southwest descent rate gradually decreases.