最小二乘曲线拟合法预测天然气消费量

Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption With Least-squares Method

随着生活的改善,人民对环境的要求不断提高,要求能源优质化、洁净化。天然气作为一种低污染、高热值能源,已被人们广泛应用到日常生活、工业中。特别是近几年全球天然气消费量达到顶峰。然而天然气的供需不平衡,只能满足能源需求的低速增长[2]。天然气的产量预测和消费预测显得至关重要。对天然气消费进行预测,可为天然气开采和管道铺设方面提供依据,避免或减少决策失误。国内外众多专家做了大量天然气的消费预测方面的研究,提出了一系列预测方法。本文针对于天然气的消费预测理论不足之处,提出了最小二乘法预测天然气消费量理论。

With improving of the life,people has enhanced requirement to the environment continuously,so high quality clean energy is requested.Natural gas,as a kind of energy with low-pollution,high calorific value,has been widely applied to the everyday life and industry.Especially in recent years the global natural gas consumption has reached the peak.Imbalance in the supply and demand of natural gas can only to meet low growth of the energy needs.Production and consumption forecast of natural gas is critical,it provides the basis for gas exploration and pipeline laying in order to avoid or reduce the faults.Many experts at home and abroad have done a lot of natural gas consumption prediction researches,proposed a series of prediction methods.In this paper,aiming at the limitations of consumption forecast theory,the least squares method to predict natural gas consumption was put forward.