中国近年CPI上涨来自过度的货币供给吗?

Is China's CPI Rise Caused by Excessive Money Supply?

近年来,我国物价水平出现了较大幅度的增长。囿于"通货膨胀无论何时何地都是货币现象"的货币主义教条,人们普遍将此轮物价水平上涨归咎于货币供给。央行为抑制物价上涨,也出台了诸如提高法定存款准备金、限制贷款规模等一系列紧缩性货币政策。然而,在资产市场已有相当规模、且产能普遍过剩的中国,扩大货币供给导致的可能是资产而非消费需求增大。进而,即使消费需求因货币供给扩大而增加,其导致的也可能是产出扩大而非价格上涨。故在上述条件下,货币供给与一般物价水平间并不存在直接的正相关关系。基于以上逻辑,本文在理论上通过纳入资本市场和产能过剩的商品市场,对经典的费雪方程式做出了修正,以说明上述关系。同时,通过选取中国1996-2012年宏观月度数据,在经验层面证明了货币供给并不是近年来CPI上涨的主要原因。这一实证结果的政策含义是,本轮物价上涨并非源自过度的货币供给,而紧缩性货币政策也不是抑制本轮CPI上涨的恰当手段。相反,过度紧缩的货币政策可能带来企业融资困难、资本市场萎缩等负面影响。

With the considerable scale of asset markets and the widespread overcapacity of production, the expansion of money supply may cause the increase of demand for assets rather than consumer goods. Furthermore, even if the demand for consumer goods increases, it may cause the expansion of consumer goods supply rather than the increase of prices. Therefore, under the conditions stated above, a direct positive relation does not exist between money supply and the general price level. This paper shows that the excessive money supply is not the main reason for China’s CPI rise in recent years. Thus, pursuing a deflationary policy is not an appropriate way to curb CPI from increase.