近百年全球气候变化与外强迫因子信号检测

Signal Detection of Global Climate Change and External Forcing Factors

利用小波分析方法 ,辅之以滞后相关分析、解释方差分析及位相对应比较方法 ,得到了气温变化及ENSO活动在各尺度层次上的变化 ,突变点位置及特征尺度 ,并确定了太阳活动、火山活动和温室效应等外强迫因子对气温及ENSO的影响尺度、幅度及响应时间。

The application of the B\|spline wavelet analysis method to series of climate an d external forcing factors is introduced.Using lag\|correlation analysis method, in terpretative variances analysis method,phrase comparing method to the wavelet an alysis result,we not only gained the variation at different scales of the globa l temperature and El Nino signals,the location of the jump points and latent sca le of these series,but also indicated the magnitude,extent of the effect of exte rnal forcing factors on them.