金融危机——理论与模型

FINANCIAL CRISES:THEORY AND MODEL

从理论角度介绍了国际经济学界关于金融危机的三类理论模型 :第一代危机模型指出 ,危机的根源在于宏观经济基础变量的恶化或扩张的货币政策与固定汇率间的不协调 ;第二代模型指出 ,政府的经济政策和公共政策导致经济中存在多维平衡点 ,而自促成因素使经济从好的平衡点转移到差的平衡点 ,危机具有自促成性质 ;新一代金融危机模型则跳出了货币政策、汇率体制、财政政策、公共政策等传统的宏观经济分析范围 ,着眼于金融中介的作用 。

WT5”BZ]In this paper,three generations of theoretical modelas of financial crisis in the field of international economic are introduced.The first generation models indicate that the deterioration of the macroeconomic fundamentals and the inconsistency of the expanded monetary policies and fixed exchange rate regime are the roots of the financial crisis.In the second generation models,the economic policies and public policies of the government make the economy have multiple equilibrium.Financial crisis has the characteristic of“self fulfilling”.Some self fulfilled factors will push a economy from the higher equilibrium to the lower equilibrium.The new generation models are presented with an eye to the functions of financial intermediaries.They indicate that the problems of the financial intermediaries are the root of the financial crisis in the environment of financial globalization. [WT5”HZ]