出口专业化、出口多样化与中国经济增长——兼谈中国经济增长出口驱动力的转换

On Export Specialization, Export Diversification and China’s Economic Growth, and Transformation of Driving Forces in China’s Export

基于SITC四位码的产品进口数据,文章测算了1962-2011年中国的出口多样化系数,发现中国出口多样化发展整体上呈现出震荡式收敛的态势。基于向量误差修正模型的计量研究表明,出口多样化与中国经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,且出口多样化的深化促进了中国经济增长。现阶段中国的出口多样化已经发展到较高水平且收敛到相对稳定的状态,这一特征事实意味着中国在考虑进一步深化出口多样化的同时,有必要做好从出口多样化转向出口专业化发展的准备工作,并由此实现中国经济增长出口驱动力的调整和转换。

Based on imports data about SITC 4-digit products,this paper calculates China’s export diversification coefficient over the period 1962-2011,detecting a general oscillatory convergence trend in China’s export diversification progress.The paper then examines the long-run relationship between China’s export diversification and its economic growth on the strength of the VECM model,coming up with findings that suggest a positive relationship between export diversification and China’s economic growth.China’s export diversification for now has developed onto a relatively high level and converged to a relatively stable state.Based on the stylized facts,it is necessary for China to further its deepening of export diversification and to prepare for a shift from export diversification to export specialization.With this,we anticipate an adjustment and transformation of the export driving forces in China’s export growth.