中国出口退税政策的就业激励效果——基于中国工业面板数据的实证分析

Tax Rebates and Employment: an Empirical VAR Analysis of China’s Industrial Panel Data

在一个两阶段博弈模型基础上,本文研究了出口退税对企业出口流量以及劳动需求的影响,然后采用中国2004年1月-2011年12月共96期工业面板数据对中国出口退税政策的就业激励效果进行了实证分析,结果表明:中国出口退税率的提高具有显著的就业促进效应,而这种就业促进效应具有行业差异性,其中,出口退税率(额)的提高对劳动密集型行业就业影响最大,出口退税率的提高显著地提高了中国劳动密集型产业的就业水平,而出口退税对中国资本密集型行业就业影响则相对较弱,对资源密集型行业就业甚至产生了抑制作用。本文的结果表明,如果国内出口退税政策诉求是提振出口,提升国内就业,那么,提高劳动密集型产业的出口退税水平比提高其他产业的出口退税水平作用更大。

Based on a two-stage game model,this paper explicates the impact of export tax rebates on export volume and domestic employment.With 96 issues of China’s monthly panel data dated between 2004 and 2011,this paper makes an empirical test on the incentive effect of China’s export rebates policy on domestic employment.The results show that the upward shift in China’s export tax rebates significantly reflects on the improvement of employment,and such an effect varies in different industries.Specifically,the rise in China’s export tax rebates has the most significantly positive impact on labor-intensive industries,while for capital-intensive industries the effect is relatively small.Notably,the effect of the rebates on capital-intensive industries is suppressive.This paper views that if Chinese government sees export rebates as a way to increase export and improve employment,the government should be informed that an increase in export tax rebates in labor-intensive industries are more supportive of the expectation than one in other industries.