摆脱城市化的低水平均衡——制度推动、社会互动与劳动力流动

Escaping the Low-Equilibrium of Urbanization:Institutional Push,Social Interaction and Labor Migration

城乡分割政策不仅直接阻碍了劳动力由农村向城市的转移,而且其负面效应还通过人际之间决策的相互依赖性而放大,使城市化进程陷于低水平均衡。本文利用CHIPS2002数据发现,农村到城市的劳动力流动决策中存在着相互依赖,并且这种相互依赖的效应还被村民之间的信息交流行为所加强。根据本文的模型进行的模拟结果,中国的农村向城市的劳动力流动的确处于低水平均衡。为了摆脱城市化的低水平均衡,除了提高农村居民的受教育水平和增进村民的信息交流等政策之外,更重要的是在消除劳动力流动的制度障碍方面实施"大推动"政策,并借助社会互动加速城市化进程。

Urban-rural division directly hinders rural-to-urban migration.Its negative impact is amplified through inter-personal dependence of decision making,and traps urbanization into a low equilibrium.In this paper,we use the '2002 Chinese Household Income Project Survey'(CHIPS2002) data to study how migration decision is made.We find that interactions in information sharing can increase the magnitude of the neighborhood effect.For policy-makers to encourage rural-to-urban migration,it is feasible to increase village migration ratio by changing individual characteristics like education,or to have higher neighborhood effect in migration by increasing information sharing.However,according to the policy simulation with the model,only a 'big-push'in institutional reform plus social interaction can help China escape the low equilibrium of labor mobility and urbanization.