长江三角洲地区城市水环境承载力评估

Assessment on water environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Delta

基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)结构模型,应用环境承载力预警分析方法,分析了长江三角洲(长三角)16个城市水环境承载力演变情况,并按照压力-状态-响应的逻辑关系,提出了水环境承载力提升的建议.结果表明,2005-2010年,长三角半数城市承载力状态改善明显,包括浙江省内6个城市和江苏省内2个城市,但整体形势依然严峻,表现在2010年江苏省内6个城市和上海仍处于危机状态.此外,区域流域间承载力状况不平衡,分异性特征显著,表现在浙江省内城市显著好于江苏省内城市和上海市,太湖以南城市显著好于太湖以北和以东城市.承载力状况好坏主要与城市容量资源多寡,排污基数大小和污染减排起效快慢有关.长三角城市宜从持续减排,优化布局,提升效率的角度出发,减少承载压力,改善承载力状态,促进承载力响应.

Based on the Pressure-State-Response （PSR） model, the environmental carrying capacity assessment methods were applied to analyze water environmental carrying capacity evolution of 16 cities in Yangtze River Delta Region. Corresponding to the logical relationship among press, state and response, suggestions for improving environment carrying capacity have been put forward. During 2005 to 2010, the carrying capacity of cities in the Yangtze River Delta had shown various levels of improvement, but the overall situation still serious. In addition, there was imbalance of carrying capacity within regions and watersheds, which mean, the carrying capacity of cities in Zhejiang province was significantly better than that of cities in Jiangsu province and Shanghai, and the carrying capacity of cities locate in the south of Taihu Lake was better than those to the north and to the east. Carrying capacity was mainly decided by city＇s environmental capacity, pollution emission baseline and the efficiency of pollution control actions. Guided by the principle of continuously pollution reduction, city layout optimization and efficiency increasing, cities in the Yangtze River Delta should reduce the pressure on carrying capacity, improve its status and promote its response.