基于劳动生产率的深圳就业人口预测

Analysis on Shenzhen Working Population in a Labor Productivity View

基于劳动生产率视角,构建一个既综合微观层面各产业劳动生产率变化发展态势,也涵盖宏观层面城市及全国未来经济增长速度等多因素的弹性体系,以此探究产值、劳动生产率和就业人口规模等变量之间灰色联系,从而实现对动态的城市就业人口规模进行预测的目的;界定适用此方法进行就业人口规模预测的一般城市特征,并应用此方法对深圳市2013—2020年就业人口规模进行预测并提出相关建议。

In a view of labor productivity, the issue establishes an elasticity system which combines variations of labor productivity of industries in micro and impetus of city and country＇s GDP in macro, hackles variables of labor productivity, GDP and working population, etc. And predicts a scale of working population of Shanzhen in future and makes advice on how to deal with problems probably occurred in working population.