定点地形变观测资料动态预估方程的建立

THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DYNAMIC PREESTIMATE EQUATION ABOUT OBSERVATION DATA OF CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN SEISMOLOGICAL STATIONS

本文提出了一种利用历史观测资料预测未来值的方法,即以递推累进计算方式建立动态预估方程。对香山地震台资料进行预估计算的结果表明,不论采用何种数学模型,都可以建立与该模型相匹配的预估方程。通过反馈,可以利用历史资料预测未来值。在此基础上,就区分有震和无震形变信息的特征标志问题进行了讨论。

This paper presents a prescription for forecasting the future vatue by historical observational data, namely, the dynamic preestimate equation is established by a way of recurrent progressive computation. The result of forecasting from the data of Xiangshan Seismologic Station indicates it is able to establish the pre-estimate equation matching a mathematical model, no matter what mathetical model is used. By feedback, the future data can be forecasted from the historical observation data Accordingly, the charaoteristic marks to distinguish the deformation data between seismicity or no-seismicity are discussed.