我国产业结构现状对碳排放的影响及调整对策研究

Research on the Effects of China's Industrial Structure on Carbon Emissions and the Adjustment Countermeasures

基于我国1994—2009年的数据采用多元线性回归模型来考察产业结构调整对二氧化碳排放量的影响,应用单整检验和EG两步检验法证明我国单位GDP碳排放量与产业结构之间存在协整关系。研究发现,产业结构调整对二氧化碳排放量的影响呈现出不同的特征,不同产业的发展对二氧化碳排放量有明显不同的影响。继而采用聚类分析法,以经济指标、生态指标和就业指标为衡量标准对第二产业内部各行业进行分类,并根据不同产业和行业提出相应的对策。

The paper is based on the 1994 - 2009 data by muhiple linear regression model to examine the adjustment effects of industrial structure on carbon dioxide emissions. The application of integration test and the EG two - step test prove that there is co - integration relationship between China＇s per unit GDP carbon emissions and industrial structure. The study finds that： the adjustment effects of industrial structure on carbon dioxide emissions show different characteristics; different industries have significantly different impacts on the development of carbon dioxide emissions. Then by using cluster analysis classified in various sectors within the secondary industry, based on economic indicators, ecological indicators and employment indicators, the paper proposes appropriate countermeasures according to the different industries.