摘要
采用IPCC(2006)建议的方法,计算1995-2010年广东能源消费碳排放量。根据扩展的Kaya恒等式,综合考察人口、经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构等因素的作用,应用LMDI分解法对广东能源消费碳排放进行分解,量化各因素贡献并探讨其作用机理。研究表明,广东能源消费碳排放不断增加最主要的驱动因素是经济规模效应,能源结构调整则是降低二氧化碳排放的最主要因素;能源强度下降使碳排放快速降低,人口因素则促使能源碳排放增长,产业结构的贡献最小。因此,广东省节能减排应该重点优化能源结构,提高能源效率,加快产业升级和结构调整。
In this paper, the amount ot＇ carbon emissions from energy consumption in Guangdong Province from 1995 to 2010 is calculated. The caleulating method is recommended by IPCC （2006）. To study the impact of indieators sueh as population, economy of scale, industrial strueture, energy intensity, energy structure comprehensively, the LMDI factorization model is constructed. It is based on expanded Kaya identical equation. Decomposition analysis on carbon emission of Guangdong Province aims to quantify main factors contribution and investigate their mechanism of action. The results indicate that expansion of economic scale is the most important factor for the continuous carbon emission growth and the energy structure adjustment is the most important to inhibit carbon emission growth. The energy intensity reduction reduced carbon emission rapidly but the population enhanced carbon emission growth. The effect of industrial structure is minimum in all factors. To achieve the aim of energy saving and emission reduction, the primary strategies in Guangdong Province are optimizing energy structure, increasing energy efficiency, and speeding up efforts to upgrade its industrial structure.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期224-227,共4页
Science and Technology Management Research
关键词
能源消费
碳排放
LMDI
广东省
energy＂ consumption
carbon emission
LMDI
Guangdong Province
