我国出版业与城市化的相关性研究

The Correlative Study between Publishing Industry and Urbanization in China

从统计学原理的角度定量地对出版业与城市化进行相关性分析,结果发现出版业与城市化有着强相关性,并结合中国出版业现状对数据结果进行定性分析。还利用1981-2011年出版业与城市化的基础数据分别对出版业与城市化发展在未来五年内进行相关预测。预测结果表明,在未来五年内,随着城市化率不断提高、城镇人口数的增加和城市建成区面积的不断扩张,出版业的总印张一直呈增长趋势。结论表明,我国出版业的发展势头在未来五年内会越来越强劲。

This paper makes a correlative analysis in quantity between publishing industry and urbanization from the point of view of statistics. As a result, there is a strong correlation between them, and then a correlative analysis for the data results in quality is given. At last, this paper makes a prediction for the development of publishing industry and urbanization in the following five years using the primal data of publishing industry and urbanization. The results of prediction show that the total copies of publishing industry will always increase with the enhancement of urbanization rate, the increase of the town populations and the spread of the area of urban built - up area. This shows that the trend of development of publishing industry will increasingly become stronger in the following five years in china.