定点形变方法多指标判别地震异常的追踪分析

TRACK ANALYSIS OF CRUSTAL DEFORMATION ANOMALIES BY MULTIPARAMETER DETERMINATION USING MONITORING NETWORK OF ALL CHINA

利用广布全国的定点形变监测台网,以形变速率、形变方向及岩石物性变化等指标,判别地震前兆异常。对多台异常信度C值进行连续计算,追踪分析一个大地震孕育过程形变异常时空特征,以求对震中、震级及发震时间作出短期预报。本文对近期发生的澜沧(7.6)、大同(6.1)等重要地震事件进行了追踪分析。发现C值在临近地震前在一定范围内突然上升并持续在高值状态,地震即发生在这一范围内,其尺度与未来地震的震级有关。目前所得认识已在我国地震趋势年度会商中应用,有较好的效果。

In this paper, using the monitoring network established in all China, the track analysis of earthquake precursor anomalies is discussed. Through the continuously calculating of multi-station anomalies availability C, the time-space character of deformation anomalies for a large earthquake prepared can he tracked and its magnitude, origin time and epicenter can be predicted probably. The parameters used in calculation are those, that as the deformation velocity, the deformation direction and the deformation index of physical rock properties. In this paper the track analysis of some important recent events, that as the Lancang Earthquake (ms=7.6), Dadon Earthquake (Ms=6.1) are made. It is discovered, that the C value in a definite region will jump up rapidly and lay in the high position, when the major earthquake is coming. The future large earthquake usely occur within this region and the magnitude of the earthquake is relative to the size of the region. Now, Some features of the C value obtained are effectively applied to predict the earthquake tendency in China.