基于国民经济发展阶段的我国地质人才供求分析

Analysis on Geological Talent Supply and Demand Based on the Stage of Development of National Economy in China

收集自1952年以来历年的GDP可比价和全国地质勘探职工年末数、工程技术人员数,运用线性回归法,对GDP和工程技术人员占比做相关性分析,发现地质人才队伍总量和结构变动与国民经济发展各阶段的地质工作任务基本协调。选取1999年之后的国民经济相关指标与地质人才数据做回归预测,未来10-20年,以工程技术人员为代表的地质人才总量仍保持稳步增长,工程技术人才将成为地勘队伍的支撑。在专业结构上以地质矿产勘查、水文地质与工程地质、石油地质矿产勘查等为主。应积极培养地质学、地球物理学等学科人才,增强地质科技创新能力,逐渐扩大与地质环境有关的专业。

Through collecting the fixed-price GDP, number of staff and workers who were engaged in geological prospecting work by the end of the year, and the number of engineering technicians from past years since 1952, this paper has made the correlative analysis on the proportion of GDP and engineering technicians by using linear regression method. It is concluded that the total geological talents and structural change is in harmony fundamentally with the task of geological work at different stages of the development of national economy. This paper also has made a regression forecasting for the indicators related to national economy and the data of geological talents selected after 1999. It points out that in the following 10 to 20 years, the total geological talents represented by engineering technical personnel will remain steady growth; and the engineering and technical personnel will be major force for geological prospecting. The specialty structure should include exploration of geology and mineral resources, hydrogeology and engineering geology, petroleum geology and mineral resources exploration. The talented people who majors in geology and geophysics have to be promoted and educated. At the same time, the capacity for geological science and technology innovation will be strengthened; and the specialized subject with regard to geological environment will be gradually expanded.