用极值统计方法预报地震三要素的探讨

A PRELIMINARY STUDY TO PREDICT THREE EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS BY EXTREMUM STATISTIC METHOD

本文利用华北地区1448—1989年的地震资料,依极值统计方法计算该区未来地震三要素,又用最小二乘原理分两种情况计算出了该区未来地震三要素的区间。第一种情况考虑相对平静期,计算结果为:M_s=7.1±0.8级,φ_N=39.°87±3.°58,λ_E=120.°78±3.°47,△T=9.32±1.75年。第二种情况不考虑相对平静期,计算结果为:M_s=7.0±0.8级,φ_N=39.°84±3.°58,λ_E=120.°65±3.°47,△T=6.95±1.75年。

Using the seismic data in seismic active region of north China during 1448—1989, three parameters of earthquake prediction in that region, magnitude, time and position , are calculated by the extremum statistic method. At the same time, the range of three parameters is estimated, in two cases, by the least squares principle. In first case, considering the seismic quiet period, the computed results are: M_S=7.1±0.8; φ_N=39.°87±3.°58, λ_E=120.°78±3.°47, ΔT=9.32±1.75 year. In second case, not considering the seismic quiet period, the results are: M_S=7.0±0.8, φ_N=39.°84±3.°58, λ_E=120.°65±3.°47, ΔT=6.95±1.75 year.