2007～2009全球经济危机的贸易与金融传染实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Cross-country Contagion through Trade and Financial Market Linkages of 2007～2009 Global Economic Crisis

针对危机之前各国国内宏观经济环境以及各国间贸易和金融联系是否与危机严重程度存在系统相关性这一问题,文章共收集了全球主要87个国家与地区2003～2009年相关指标的数据,使用多指标多因素模型进行实证检验。发现对于危机之前人均收入水平更高、信贷市场扩张更快、经常项目赤字更大和贸易开放度更高的国家,经济危机的程度也更为严重,在跨国传染因素中发现贸易联系的传染效应要比金融市场联系的传染效应更强。

To answer the question of whether domestic macroeconomic environments and international trade and financial market linkages have exacerbated the economic crisis, the paper collects the data of 87 countries from 2003 to 2009, uses the estimation of multipleindicator and muhiple-cause model to conduct an empirical research, and finds that the precrisis level of GDP per capita, private credit growth, current account deficit and trade openness are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. As for the international economic linkage, it also finds that the cross-country contagion through trade linkage is stronger than that through financial market linkage.