全球变暖对区域水资源影响的计算分析——以海南岛万泉河为例

ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL WATER RESOURCE RESPONSETO GLOBAL WARMING──A CASE STUDYOF WANQUAN BASIN

自1985年世界气象组织(WMO)在奥地利召开全球气候增暖的专门会议之后,全球气候变暖对水资源及陆地生态系统的影响成为非常活跃的研究领域。本文利用水量平衡模型,采取假定气候方案方法,分析了万泉河流域水资源状况对全球增暖的响应。结果表明:温度升高将明显导致区域径流量减少、年径流系列的不稳定性增强、土壤蓄水降低,同时径流年内分配也发生变化。为未来全球变暖状况下,区域水资源管理提供依据。

There is mounting evidence that increasing amount of man-induced atmospheric carbon dioxide may lead to significant change in global climate during next century. A water balance model is used to determine the effects of such climate change on regional water resources in the Wanquan Basin, a humid tropical river in Hainan Province, in the south of China. Results show that an increase of temperature would result in: (1) decrease of average annual runoff; (2) enlargement of runoff series variance; (3) increase of frequency of drought; (4) decrease of soil moisture; (5) changes in annual runoff distribution and these responses are obviously different from month, to month Since demand of water is increasing with the development of the basin, these changes would have serious regional ramifications.