河南省渔业增加值的加权Markov残差修正预测研究

Weighted Markov residual improved research on the added value of fisheries in Henan Province

引入灰精度指标,基于加权马尔可夫链(Markov)理论提出了灰色残差修正模型,并运用马尔可夫状态转移矩阵对未来残差的符号进行判定.以1994—2011年河南省渔业增加值为基础,建立预测模型,并在模型中不断加入新信息,进行实证分析.结果表明,与传统的灰色预测相比,预测值平均相对误差由8.33%降低为2.54%,较好地提高了预测的精度.

Grey precision index is introduced in this paper to propose the grey residual modification model based on the weighted Markov theory and the state transition matrix of Markov is adopted to fore- cast the sign of future residual. The weighted Markov improved model is formed based on the added value of fisheries from 1994 to 2011 in Henan with adding the dimension information in the model. The test results show that the average relative error of prediction is reduced from 8.33% to 2.54% and the prediction accuracy is improved obviously.