对淮河流域实时洪水调度若干问题的认识

Issues on real time flood regulation in Huaihe River Basin

淮河流域实时洪水调度工作是一个复杂巨系统。对系统的目标、元素、关系及环境等进行了分析,提出了"调度元素"概念,分析了实时与预见期、需求与可能性、过程与阶段、河系与河段、主要与次要目标、全局与局部、合理与合法一致性等调度关系,以及系统与环境的相互作用。提出应从系统学视角加强"防汛学"研究;探讨"精细化调度"的技术支撑;提出了"极限防洪能力"概念,考察现有防洪工程的安全极限;运用物联网等技术建立工程险情评估系统;加强动态的风险评估,评估需反映社会承受能力等社会环境的元素。提出"调度根据条件"概念,探索决策过程的透明化,并在此基础上建立调度系统后评价工作机制等。

The real time flood regulation in Huaihe River Basin is a giant and complicated system. The objective, element, relationship and surrounding environment of the system is analyzed, and the concept of ＂regulation element＂ is raised. Several sets of relationship during the regulation are analyzed, such as real time and forecast period, demand and possibility, process and stage, river system and river section, primary objective and secondary objective, overall and part, reasonability and legal consistency as well as interaction between system and surrounding environment. It is proposed that the research on ＂flood defense science＂ should be reinforced from the perspective of systematic. The technical support role of meticulous regulation is discussed. The concept of ＂ceiling ability of flood defense＂ is put forward to investigate the safety limits of existing flood defense projects. The internet of things is adopted to establish the evaluation system of engineering dangerous status. The dynamic risk evaluation is reinforced to assess elements that indicate the bearing capacity of the society. The concept of ＂regulation conditions＂ is proposed to help explore transparency decision-making process. Based on that, post evaluation mechanism of regulation system is established.